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M K Bhadrakumar l The western analysts feel agitated about Iran’s refusal to play by the rule book of liberal democracy. They feel indignant even as Tehran released on Tuesday the final list of candidates found qualified by the Constitutional Council to run for president in the June 18 election.  A consensus is forming that the election is gerrymandered by the powers that...
Pax Americana
M K Bhadrakumar l Anyone who tried to divine the Russia policy of the Biden presidency out of the corpus of statements by current and prospective officials in the new administration would know by now that the range of instincts and perspectives contained in those statements did not really reflect or anticipate what was to happen — the upcoming summit...
Geography and history have left Afghanistan a fractured landscape, the contours of which are re-emerging as the United States withdraws from its 20-year engagement. Landlocked in Central Asia, Afghanistan has a history of being a geographically fragmented nation with an equally fragmented society, with concentrations of ethnic, sectarian and clan affiliations that have long shaped the Afghan context. After the U.S.-backed...
war
Saad Rasool | Even in these extremely uncertain coronavirus times, there is one thing that can be asserted with some measure of certainty: a new war, a new Great Game, a new world order, is afoot. And in the coming months and years, South Asia, along with the Pacific, will most likely be the arena in which this next Great...
Tehran
M K Bhadrakumar l There have been two successive setbacks in the past one-year period to the New Delhi-Tehran relationship. India has been literally eased out of two strategically important projects in Iran that were full of promise to uplift the ties in a medium and long term perspective.  The first was in July when Tehran dropped India from the planned construction of a rail...
China
M K Bhadrakumar l Ten months after the first meeting of the foreign ministers of China and the five Central Asian states, Beijing has followed through with a second session on May 11 at a gathering in Xi’an, China, hosted by Foreign Minister Wang Yi.  The venue is symbolic. The ancient city of Xi’an used to be the ‘terminus a quo’...
US
M K Bhadrakumar l As the US and NATO troop withdrawal from Afghanistan enters the second week, certain trends are appearing on the security front as well as at the diplomatic and political level. The graph of violence is rising while there is also greater clarity about the US’ game plan.  As could be expected, the Taliban campaign of targeted killings...
Saudi Arabia
Bilateral talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran will not end their rivalry but could de-escalate conflict in areas where both have influence, including Yemen. News of rare talks between two of the Middle East’s biggest adversaries comes as both Riyadh and Tehran are trying to assess where they stand with U.S. President Joe Biden’s new administration. The Iraqi government’s eagerness to position...
India
Jawad Falak l On 7 April, the US Navy conducted a ‘navigation operation’ within Indian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) without any intimation to India. To add insult to injury, the US 7th Fleet openly officially admitted the maneuver, saying, “On April 7, 2021 (local time) USS John Paul Jones (DDG 53) asserted navigational rights and freedoms approximately 130 nautical miles...
Ukraine
Andrew Korybko | Ukraine wants war with Russia due to a combination of domestic and international factors, but such a scenario would be disastrous for the Eastern European country and only serve the interests of some members of the political elite and their foreign patrons. The whole world is watching with bated breath to see whether Ukraine and Russia will go...
Jordan
The most we know is that on April 3, 2021, the Jordan Chief of Staff, General Youssef Huneiti, came to politely inform Prince Hamza that he was under house arrest and that he was forbidden to talk to the media. The recorded conversation was nevertheless circulated. It shows an arrogant and fiery prince, while the military officer, always courteous...
US
M K Bhadrakumar l In his landmark foreign policy speech delivered from the US state department on February 4, President Joe Biden had proclaimed that “America is back. Diplomacy is back at the centre of our foreign policy.” That maxim was put to test last week. And it failed to make the grade.   A confusing picture emerges as the US diplomacy toward Russia...
Duqm Port
Abdul Wahab l Duqm port has immense importance due to its strategic location. Duqm port is a segment of the SEZAD project (Special Economic Zone Authority of Duqm) in the Sultanate of Oman. The port, which was designed with the intention of boosting the economy, is an evergreen project that is rapidly establishing itself as a center of economic activity...
US
Zamir Awan l After two decades of fighting in Afghanistan, losing thousands of servicemen, losing trillion dollars, killing millions of innocent Afghans, destroying millions of homes, damaging Afghanistan completely, finally, the US accepted its defeat in the Afghan war. On April 14, 2021, President Joe Biden made a speech from the Roosevelt — the Treaty Room in the White House.  In...
This article focuses on the application of the broad principles of freedom of the high seas and navigation rights, as outlined in the LOSC, within specific situations that permit coastal States to impose some limitations on freedom of navigation including “innocent passage” and “transit passage.”  The U.S. is not a party to the LOSC, but it considers the provisions...
China
M K Bhadrakumar l The China-Iran joint statement of last Saturday has made waves in the international media and among regional analysts from Israel to India. Israel is anxious that there is going to be security cooperation between China and Iran. Indians are brooding over the fate of their Chabahar port project in eastern Iran, integral to its “regional connectivity”.  The devil lies...
China
M K Bhadrakumar l In an exclusive interview with Al-Arabiya last week, China’s State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi outlined Beijing’s approach to the West Asian region with particular reference to the tensions in the Persian Gulf. Wang lamented that “due to protracted conflicts and turmoil in the more recent history, the region descended into a security lowland… For the region to...
Strategic
M K Bhadrakumar l When China and Iran, two of the United States’ main adversaries in the contemporary world situation, enter into a 25-year strategic pact, it is pointless to split hairs and speculate whether the development affects American strategies. Of course, it does. The West Asian region is all about geopolitics — starting from oil and jihad to petrodollar.  The...
China
China is an empire in the modern sense — a nation strengthened (but also held hostage) by its long supply chains, compelled to ever greater economic and political intercourse to preserve its interests, and increasingly drawn into the security sphere as well. It uses its economic, political and military leverage to expand its own direct sphere of operations, from the...
Security
Saad Rasool | This past week, Pakistan held the ‘Islamabad Security Dialogue’ (ISD)–a first of its kind. This two-day security symposium is organised by the National Security Division under the auspices of the enterprising Dr. Moeed Yusuf, Special Advisor to the Prime Minister on National Security and Strategic Policy. This dialogue, in the words of Dr. Yusuf, aimed at unveiling Pakistan’s...
QUAD
Andrew Korybko | The US-led anti-Chinese QUAD alliance of itself, Australia, India, and Japan might be on the brink of collapse according to influential BJP ideologue Subramanian Swamy, who warned that Washington might expel New Delhi from this bloc if it goes through with its planned purchase of Russia's S-400 air defense systems. One of the most geopolitically consequential blocs of...
US
M K Bhadrakumar l The “hidden agenda” of the war on terror in Afghanistan has been an open secret. The first inkling of its geopolitical character came when it transpired that even after installing a pro-US regime in Kabul in 2002-2003, Pentagon was in no mood to vacate its Central Asian bases. Finally, the bloody Islamist uprising in Andijan in...
Khan
Saad Hafiz l The recent announcement of a ceasefire along the Line of Control in Kashmir between India and Pakistan is a welcome news. While the de-escalation was initiated by the respective militaries, it is an opportunity for a broader thaw in relations. The restoration of frozen diplomatic engagements and people-to-people contacts can be logical next steps. It would be naive...
Indian Ocean
Abid Latif Sindhu l Bits of broken pottery are usually found ashore at many places all along the littoral states of Indian Ocean. This depicts the history, revealing itself for any carbon testing to reach a conclusion; IOR (Indian Ocean region) is a single contiguous region since centuries. Sea is the place where future is invented in ebb and flow...
S-400
TIC Analysis l Turkey is the first foreign recipient to receive 9M96E2 missiles. These are missiles with a range of up to 120 km, developed for the latest Russian medium-range system S-350 Vityaz, launched in December 2019. Turkey not only acquired the S-400 system in the latest configuration, typical for Russian units, but also became the first foreign user of the...
Israel’s
TIC Analysis l Israel’s 35th government took oath on May 17, 2020 bringing to an end 16 months of political turmoil wrought by three inconclusive elections. New government was scheduled to be installed following April 2019 elections but with no single party able to secure majority, new elections were announced. Snap elections were held on September 17, 2019 and March...
source
Adv Abdul Rasool Syed l Depleting potable water resources have sent alarm across the globe pertaining to the emergence of a new spree of future global conflicts in quest for occupying available water reservoirs of the world. Water is an indispensable sine qua non for human existence, hence, its dearth, for sure, endangers the very survival of humankind. It is...
investment
The European Union will remain open to Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the coming years, but will limit China’s access to strategic sectors of its economy (such as technology). Brussels will also continue to confront Beijing over political, human rights and security issues. The European Union and the United States are the Continent’s primary sources of FDI, which limits...
India
The guided-missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones sailing past Lakshadweep Islands April 7 has thrown India’s Sinophobes into confusion. One leading daily noted it as a “rare falling out between the two partners in the Quad grouping.” An anti-China analyst tweeted that it’s just a “botched PR exercise” on the part of Americans.  The Ministry of External Affairs took a legalistic...
Alina Malik l International Humanitarian Law (IHL) is applicable to both international and non-international armed conflicts. In contemporary world, non-international armed conflicts are rampant and have increased insecurity at domestic, regional and international level. IHL has defined non-international armed conflicts in order to clear the distinctions between them and internal disturbances. Non-international armed conflicts, according to Common Article 3 of the...

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