Andrew Korybko |
It’s In Kashmir Where Trump Can Win The Nobel Peace Prize: India just did everything that “Israel” wished it could do in Palestine by abrogating Kashmir’s relative “autonomy”, imposing a draconian curfew in the disputed region, and “legally” facilitating the large-scale influx of “Weapons of Mass Migration” there to disrupt the demographic balance, and the only country that has the political will to realistically force this rogue state to reconsider these highly counter-producive steps is the US.
Trump recently disclosed that Modi asked him to mediate in Kashmir, though the Indian side vehemently denied that anything of the sort transpired between the two leaders and instead responded to his peaceful outreaches by killing more Kashmiris, both of which could be interpreted as personal affronts to Trump. Almost counterintuitively, this puts the US in the best position of any Great Power to bring about a lasting solution to this decades-long conflict, but only if it plays “hardball” with India in pursuit of a peaceful settlement that would also function as the basis for these two Great Powers’ comprehensive strategic partnership.
A Counterintuitively Enticing Opportunity
The US is India’s new military-strategic ally for “containing” China, but their partnership is bereft of a solid economic foundation upon which to diversify their relations into other much-needed spheres. America recently edged out China as India’s top trading partner, but the tariffs that each side has imposed against the other in their bid to get a “better deal” from one another has sparked a self-sustaining cycle of distrust that recently culminated in Trump’s Kashmir disclosure during his press conference with Pakistani Prime Minister Khan, which was beyond embarrassing for Modi.
The Indian government’s rebuff of Trump’s mediation proposal and blatant violation of UNSC Resolutions relating to the disputed mountainous territory have only made American-Indian relations even worse since then, though the US now has an enticing opportunity to make the resolution of the Kashmir Conflict its top regional priority in order to pressure India into submitting on the economic front and becoming America’s unquestionable vassal state if it succeeds.
Russia won’t apply any significant pressure on India despite the regional “balancing” act that it’s practicing through its recent “Return to South Asia” because its national budget is disproportionately dependent on arms exports to New Delhi. Although these have been steeply declining over the past decade (though lately punctuated by a spree of sales), Russia simply can’t risk its “partner” punitively pivoting even faster towards its Western competitors in response to any active diplomatic measures that it might take in support of the Kashmiri cause because these would exacerbate the country’s economic problems at a crucial moment during its ongoing dual systemic transitions.
As for China, it’s trying to woo India away from a game-changing trade deal with the US and into signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) that would serve as a precursor to New Delhi’s inevitable membership in the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) in that scenario, so it too is unlikely to take any serious steps in pressuring India to reverse its recent moves. As such, only the US remains.
A Self-Interested Pursuit Of The Common Good
Power To The People
Andrew Korybko is a political analyst, radio host, and regular contributor to several online outlets. He specializes in Russian affairs and geopolitics, specifically the US strategy in Eurasia. His other areas of focus include tactics of regime change, color revolutions and unconventional warfare used across the world. His book, “Hybrid Wars: The Indirect Adaptive Approach To Regime Change”, extensively analyzes the situations in Syria and Ukraine and claims to prove that they represent a new model of strategic warfare being waged by the US. This article was first published in orientalreview.org and has been republished here with permission of the author.